From Drought to Deluge: 120 Years of Potchefstroom’s Rainfall Story

Potchefstroom, is at about 1,350 m elevation, and the city’s climate oscillates between bone-dry winters and thundering summer downpours. Over the past century and more, residents have witnessed dramatic swings – from years when crops withered in drought to seasons when the Mooi River burst its banks. This article explores Potchefstroom’s rainfall patterns from 1900 to today, highlighting average conditions, record-breaking wet and dry years, floods that left a mark on local history, and how recent rains in 2024 and 2025 stack up against the past.

Climate of Potchefstroom: Warm Summers, Dry Winters

Potchefstroom enjoys a temperate climate with summer rainfall and dry winters. Most rain falls in the warmer months between October and March, while winter months often see blue skies and little to no rain. Climate scientists classify it as a subtropical highland climate on the Köppen scale (specifically Cwa, indicating a temperate climate with dry winters and hot summers) (Potchefstroom climate: Weather Potchefstroom & temperature by month ).

Summers are warm to hot, frequently topping 30 °C in the daytime, and afternoons often build up thunderstorms that drench the fields. In contrast, winters are cool and sunny – chilly nights can even bring frost, but daytime temperatures are mild.

On average, Potchefstroom receives roughly 600–650 mm of precipitation in a year, almost all of it in the summer half of the year. According to long-term records (1903–2023), the mean annual rainfall is about 612 mm (Potchefstroom - Wikipedia). November through January are usually the wettest months, each averaging around 90–105 mm of rain (Potchefstroom - Wikipedia).

By May, the rains fade away – June, July, and August often total only a few millimeters combined, underscoring how pronounced the dry season is. Residents are accustomed to planning outdoor events in winter without fear of rain, while summer afternoons often come with the familiar smell of petrichor as storms sweep through. This predictable seasonality – summer downpours and winter drought – defines life in Potchefstroom, from agriculture to water management.

Yet within this rhythm, there is huge year-to-year variability. The “average” hides how wildly nature can swing between feast and famine. As one local farmer put it, “In Potch, when it rains, it pours – and when it doesn’t, you’re looking at cloudless skies for weeks.” The historical record bears this out. Some years have seen well below 400 mm, bringing severe drought, while the wettest years have delivered well over 900 mm. Let’s delve into those extreme years next.

Boom and Bust: Wettest and Driest Years on Record

Over more than a century of observations, Potchefstroom’s rainfall has seesawed between extreme lows and highs. The data tells a story of hardship in dry years and abundance in wet ones. Table 1 and Table 2 below list the five most arid and five most rain-soaked years recorded in Potchefstroom since about 1900:

Five Driest Years on Record in Potchefstroom (1903–2023)

Year	Annual Rainfall
1903	366 mm
1992	377 mm
1945	396 mm
2015	397 mm
1919	409 mm

Table 1: The five driest years in Potchefstroom’s recorded history, with annual precipitation totals. In these years, rains were less than two-thirds of the long-term average, causing severe drought conditions.  (Average temperature and precipitation by months and years: Potchefstroom ) (Heavy rains destroy several homes in North West - newsnote)

Five Wettest Years on Record in Potchefstroom (1903–2023)

Year	Annual Rainfall
1996	1,074 mm
1976	980 mm
1943	959 mm
1929	940 mm
1975	923 mm

Table 2: The five wettest years on record in Potchefstroom, with annual precipitation totals. These years saw deluges of rain — well over the usual amount — leading to lush conditions and sometimes flooding. (Average temperature and precipitation by months and years: Potchefstroom ) (Heavy daily-rainfall characteristics over the Gauteng Province)

Looking at these tables, a few points stand out. The driest year ever measured was 1903, with only 366 mm of rain for the entire year (Average temperature and precipitation by months and years: Potchefstroom ). In stark contrast, 1996 holds the record as the wettest year, soaking Potchefstroom with about 1,074 mm – nearly triple the rainfall of 1903 (Average temperature and precipitation by months and years: Potchefstroom ).

To put that in perspective, 1996’s rainfall would fill the Potchefstroom Dam to the brim, whereas 1903’s would barely dampen its bottom.

Other notoriously dry years included 1992 (approximately 377 mm) and 2015 (~397 mm), both remembered for their parched landscapes. Older residents recall 1992 as part of the early 90s drought that gripped much of southern Africa – rainfall that year was extraordinarily scant, and water restrictions were widespread. More recently, 2015 brought another severe drought; Potchefstroom received less than 400 mm, forcing communities to conserve water and pray for relief. (Interestingly, 1945 also had virtually the same low total – around 396 mm – tying 2015 for a drought of similar magnitude in the history books.) In these bone-dry years, the usually green campus of the local university turned brown, and the Mooi River slowed to a trickle.

On the flip side, the mid-1970s stand out as an era of rainstorms. 1976 saw about 980 mm, and the year before that, 1975, wasn’t far behind at 923 mm. The 1940s also had a blockbuster year: 1943 delivered roughly 959 mm. And going further back, 1929 was exceptionally wet with around 940 mm. In each of those years, heavy rains transformed the landscape – the normally modest Mooi River would swell, and fields stayed lush and muddy for weeks on end.

It’s clear that Potchefstroom’s rainfall is highly variable. One scientific analysis found that interannual rainfall in the region has a coefficient of variation around 20–30%, meaning the year-to-year swings are quite pronounced . Climatologists even detected a slight long-term trend: research by Lynch et al. noted a gradual increase in annual rainfall in the Potchefstroom area from 1925 to 1998 . In other words, the 20th century saw a modest upward creep in rainfall totals. However, this trend does not eliminate the boom-bust cycle – dry years and wet years continue to alternate, sometimes unpredictably.

What drives these extreme years?

Often, broader climate patterns are at play. El Niño and La Niña – the Pacific Ocean cycles – have a big influence on southern Africa’s rainfall. El Niño years (when Pacific waters warm) tend to bring drought to South Africa’s interior, while La Niña (when Pacific waters cool) often correlates with above-average rain. For example, 1992’s drought coincided with a strong El Niño, and indeed it was one of the driest on record. In contrast, 1996’s floods came during a La Niña period. Local climate experts also point out that the mid-90s rainy spell was extraordinary – in fact, the summer of 1995/96 was the wettest in decades across the Highveld (Heavy daily-rainfall characteristics over the Gauteng Province).

According to the South African Weather Service data, 1995/96 had the highest seasonal rainfall in Gauteng (the province just east of Potchefstroom) in a 32-year span, and Potchefstroom likely saw the same trend (Heavy daily-rainfall characteristics over the Gauteng Province). Many still remember the late summer of 1996 for its persistent storms that turned fields into temporary lakes.

Conversely, the early 1980s and early 1990s delivered droughts that are etched in memory. One long-time Potchefstroom resident, recalling 1992, said it was “the year the taps almost ran dry.” Indeed, North West province experienced severe water shortages that year.

In short, Potchefstroom’s climate history is one of extremes, oscillating between scorching droughts and soaking wet years. This natural variability poses challenges for farmers, city planners, and residents alike – requiring them to adapt to a climate of “feast or famine” when it comes to rain.

When the Mooi River Swells: Notable Floods in History

Periods of exceptional rain have occasionally led to floods that hit Potchefstroom hard, especially when heavy downpours occur in short time spans. The Mooi River, normally a gentle presence through the town, can turn into a hazard when it overflows. Local archives and memories highlight several notable flood events over the years:

• Early 1900s and Before: Even in the 19th century, floods were part of Potchefstroom’s story. In fact, the town’s original settlement (Oude Dorp) in the 1830s was built on a low wetland, and it flooded so badly in 1840 that the Voortrekker settlers had to relocate to higher ground (). This was a lesson learned early: waterways in this region could rise quickly. Moving into the 20th century, however, flood records were sparse for a while, as much of the early century was relatively dry (with notable droughts like 1903).

• February 1976: After the immense rains of 1975–1976 (nearly a meter of rainfall in 1976), widespread flooding struck parts of South Africa’s highveld. In Potchefstroom, older residents recall low-lying neighborhoods being inundated. While detailed local reports are hard to find from that time, it is clear that the mid-70s La Niña brought overflowing rivers. Bridges over the Mooi River were tested; some rural roads became impassable. The 1976 events taught authorities about vulnerabilities in drainage and riverbank structures.

• January–February 1996: This summer stands out as perhaps Potchefstroom’s most significant flood episode of the late 20th century. Relentless storms in January 1996 caused flash floods across the North West and Gauteng regions. Meteorologists note that “January and February 1996” saw widespread flooding across the Highveld (Heavy daily-rainfall characteristics over the Gauteng Province), and Potchefstroom was no exception. Torrents of rain over a few weeks caused the Mooi River to swell. In some places the river burst its banks, flooding homes and farmlands. The national disaster record shows that many parts of South Africa were declared disaster areas due to flooding in early 1996. Locally, residents had to reinforce dikes near the river and assist those in waterlogged townships. This event is often compared to the great floods of 2000 (when a cyclone’s remnants drenched the region), but 1996 remains a high-water mark in Potchefstroom’s modern history for flood damage.

• December 2010–January 2011: The summer of 2010/11 brought another major flood episode nationally, thanks to a strong La Niña. By January 2011, 8 of South Africa’s 9 provinces were declared disaster areas due to flooding ([PDF] Flood impact assessment and proposals for improved flood ...). In Potchefstroom, heavy rains in late December 2010 caused the Mooi River to rise. Some will recall how the parks along the river went underwater. While Potchefstroom did not suffer the tragic losses seen in other provinces, local authorities had to close low-lying bridges as a precaution. This event reinforced the need for disaster preparedness even in inland towns.

• November 2022: In recent memory, late 2022 brought serious flooding to Potchefstroom and surrounds. In the second week of November 2022, torrential rains caused three nearby dams – Klerkskraal, Boskop, and Potchefstroom Dam – to overflow, and the Mooi River burst its banks (Heavy rains destroy several homes in North West - newsnote). Villages and informal settlements downstream were badly affected. According to JB Marks Municipality officials, numerous homes were destroyed or waterlogged and infrastructure was damaged (Heavy rains destroy several homes in North West - newsnote) (Heavy rains destroy several homes in North West - newsnote). Photographs from that week show submerged pastureland and residents paddling through what used to be streets. Fortunately, no lives were lost, but the community was put on flood alert as water levels rose. The November 2022 flood was a wake-up call that even after many years without severe floods, Mother Nature can surprise Potchefstroom with a sudden deluge.

• January 2025: As the new year of 2025 began, severe floods struck the North West Province, including Potchefstroom’s municipality. In early January, relentless heavy rains over several days led to flooding that destroyed homes and submerged roads across the region (North West Battles Floods as Heavy Rains Wreak Havoc - POWER 98.7). The JB Marks municipal area (which includes Potchefstroom) was among the hard-hit locales. Disaster management teams were deployed as bridges were washed out and some clinics and schools were inundated (North West Battles Floods as Heavy Rains Wreak Havoc - POWER 98.7) (North West Battles Floods as Heavy Rains Wreak Havoc - POWER 98.7). The provincial government reported that in the Potchefstroom area and neighboring districts, dozens of houses were flooded and infrastructure suffered extensive damage. This event was extraordinary in its intensity – by some accounts, it was the worst flooding in the area in many years, drawing comparisons to the big floods of the 1990s. The January 2025 floods underline a concerning trend: what used to be “once in a lifetime” floods may be happening more frequently in recent times.

Why did the late 2022 and early 2025 floods happen? Meteorologists point to unusual weather patterns. In both cases, tropical moisture played a role. Prof. Dewald van Niekerk, a disaster risk expert at North-West University, explained that in early 2023 (just before the 2025 floods), “we experienced several tropical systems forming in the Mozambique Channel. One such system moved inland, weakened and persisted over southern Botswana, bringing significant rainfall over the eastern part of South Africa” (NWU expert weighs in on North West floods | news.nwu.ac.za). In other words, a stalled tropical low-pressure system dumped rain for days, a recipe for flooding.

While Van Niekerk was referring to a 2023 event, the pattern was similar in early 2025 – a confluence of tropical moisture and slow-moving weather systems. He also noted that North West province historically did not see extreme rainfall events as often as, say, coastal regions, but recent events are breaking that paradigm (NWU expert weighs in on North West floods | news.nwu.ac.za).

The infrastructure in Potchefstroom, like many towns, has been tested by these floods. For example, older stormwater drains sometimes struggled to cope, and informal housing areas – often near streams – were hit hardest. These floods have prompted local authorities to re-evaluate flood defenses and emergency response.

In summation, flooding isn’t an every-year occurrence in Potchefstroom, but when it does happen, it leaves a lasting impression. The community’s collective memory holds stories of “die groot vloed” (the great flood) of one year or another. With climate patterns shifting, many wonder if such extreme rainfall events will become more common.

Recent Rainfall in Perspective: 2024 and 2025 vs the Past

The last couple of years have been a rollercoaster for Potchefstroom’s weather, illustrating how quickly the pendulum can swing. How did the 2024 and 2025 rainfall seasons compare to the historical average? In short, they have exemplified the old pattern of “drought one year, floods the next,” keeping everyone on their toes.

2022–2023 (approx. “2024 season”): After the deluge of late 2021 and early 2022, the rains took a downturn. The total rainfall in the year 2023 (roughly corresponding to the 2022/23 rain season) was well below average. Preliminary data and reports suggest Potchefstroom received on the order of 460–480 mm in 2023, far under the normal ~612 mm (Potchefstroom - Wikipedia). Indeed, one data source recorded about 464 mm for the 2023 calendar year (Average temperature and precipitation by months and years: Potchefstroom ), making it one of the driest recent years.

This dry spell manifested in very poor rainfall during the middle of the summer. After the November 2022 floods, the region experienced a relative dryness in early 2023 – a somewhat ironic twist. By mid-2023, farmers were lamenting the return of drought conditions. The year 2023 ended up echoing other drought years like 2015; dam levels dropped and water conservation measures were back in conversation. It was a stark reminder that Potchefstroom can go from too much water to too little in a short span. (In climate terms, the Pacific transitioned from La Niña toward El Niño during 2023, which often brings drier weather – a likely factor in the below-average rains.)

2023–2024 (approx. “2025 season”): Then came the dramatic rebound. The latter part of 2024 and the start of 2025 have been exceedingly wet and stormy, more than making up for the previous year’s deficit. As noted earlier, by January 2025 the province was grappling with severe floods (North West Battles Floods as Heavy Rains Wreak Havoc - POWER 98.7). The ongoing 2024/25 summer rainy season has delivered above-average rainfall in Potchefstroom. Although final totals for the full season are still being tallied, it’s clear that the rainfall has far exceeded the norm in recent months. For instance, during October 2024 to January 2025, multiple heavy rain events occurred – local weather stations reported frequent storm totals of 50 mm or more in a day, and these added up quickly. Provincial authorities indicated that many areas in North West saw rainfall surpluses by the end of December. By early 2025, soil moisture was at a maximum and every pond and pan was full.

One measure comes from the 2021–2022 season as a comparable benchmark: Potchefstroom recorded 850 mm from October 2021 to May 2022, which was “higher than the long-term average of 634 mm” for that period (Planting date has significant effect, study shows - SA Grain). The 2024/25 season seems to be on a similar trajectory, if not higher. While we await precise figures for the full 2024–2025 cycle, the pattern is evident: 2022 was wet, 2023 was dry, and 2024–25 swung back to very wet. This volatility is a hallmark of the region’s climate.

Local experts are carefully watching these recent swings. Are they merely natural variation, or signs of a changing climate? Climatologists note that extremes are becoming more pronounced. Professor van Niekerk and others caution that what we consider “freak” weather might happen more often as climate change influences rainfall patterns (NWU expert weighs in on North West floods | news.nwu.ac.za). Warmer air can hold more moisture, potentially leading to heavier downpours. There is also concern that the drainage infrastructure needs upgrades to handle sudden large volumes of water. The JB Marks Municipality has started identifying flood-prone zones and improving early warning systems, in response to the 2022 and 2025 flood events.

On the drought side, efforts are underway to increase water storage and resilience for dry years. After 2015’s drought, for example, the city implemented stricter water management policies and promoted water-wise gardening among residents. The cycle of a dry 2023 followed by a wet 2025 reinforces the need for such adaptive strategies – essentially, “plan for drought, prepare for floods.”

Voices of the Experts and Community

What do those who study the climate – and those who live through it – have to say about Potchefstroom’s rainfall journey? There is a mix of concern and optimism.

Hydrologists from the South African Weather Service point out that rainfall in the North West Province has high variability but no clear long-term decrease. In fact, as mentioned earlier, the data up to the 1990s showed a slight increase (). However, they also emphasize that climate change could disrupt familiar patterns, possibly leading to more intense rainfall events interspersed with intense droughts. This scenario of greater extremes seems to be unfolding. The floods of recent years and the multi-year drought earlier in the 2010s (2014–2016) are cited as examples. “South Africa is a generally dry country,” one SAWS climatologist explains, “and the North West’s average rainfall (around 500–600 mm) is well below the world average, so any prolonged shortfall hits hard.” At the same time, when asked about floods, she noted that “our infrastructure was designed for a certain climate. If that climate is shifting to more intense rain, we need to rethink how we build stormwater systems.”

Local farmers and water managers have also adapted folk wisdom. Many farmers keep rain logs dating back decades, and these logs corroborate the official records – they speak of the legendary wet cycles of the 1970s and 1990s, and the dry spells of the 1960s, 1980s, and 2010s. An older farmer outside Potchefstroom chuckled, “I’ve learned not to bet on next year’s rain. In ’92 we sold off cattle because grazing dried up, then in ’96 we had so much grass we didn’t know what to do. You just have to be prepared for anything.” This ability to expect the unexpected is part of the community’s resilience.

Experts like Professor Van Niekerk stress preparation and learning from the past. After the North West floods of 2023/2025, he commented on the need for better early-warning systems and disaster planning, saying that even if extreme floods were rare historically, “many municipalities struggle with basic service delivery, so implementing disaster management measures is often beyond their capacity” (NWU expert weighs in on North West floods | news.nwu.ac.za) (NWU expert weighs in on North West floods | news.nwu.ac.za). He highlights that vulnerability is as much about where and how we build as it is about how much it rains. For instance, informal settlements near the Mooi River are at risk when floods strike. His team at NWU advocates for updated floodplain maps and stricter control of development in those zones.

On the drought side, water conservationists at the university have worked with the municipality on initiatives like rainwater harvesting (encouraging homes to install water tanks) and fixing leaking pipes (since in dry times every drop counts). They note that North West province loses a lot of water to evaporation and inefficient use, so better management can ease the pain of drought years.

In the schools, teachers have even turned this into a learning opportunity. Geography classes in Potchefstroom often use local rainfall graphs to teach students about climate variability. It’s not uncommon for a Grade 7 class to analyze why, say, the Mooi River flooded in 2025 and what could be done to mitigate damage next time. Such lessons bring home the reality of living in a place where weather can shape history.

The Ever-Changing Sky

Potchefstroom’s rainfall narrative from 1900 to the present is a tale of contrasts – of merciful rains and merciless droughts, of anxious eyes scanning the sky for clouds, and of children joyfully splashing in puddles after a long dry spell. From the records of the driest year in 1903 (just 366 mm) (Average temperature and precipitation by months and years: Potchefstroom ) to the downpours of 1996 (1,074 mm) (Average temperature and precipitation by months and years: Potchefstroom ), we see how variable this climate is.

These fluctuations have tested the resilience of the local community time and again. Each generation has its stories: grandparents might recount the parched 1940s and the brimming Mooi River in 1976, while younger residents will never forget the dramatic floods of 2022 and 2025.

Yet, despite the challenges, Potchefstroom endures and adapts. Its farmers adjust planting dates (for example, opting to sow crops earlier or later depending on rain forecasts), its city planners work on buffering the dry months and draining the wet ones, and its people carry umbrellas in summer and sweaters in winter, ready for whatever the Highveld sky delivers. As climate scientists continue to study patterns and improve predictions, there is hope that communities will be better equipped for the next big drought or deluge.

In the words of a local meteorologist, “Potchefstroom’s weather keeps us humble. Just when we think we’ve got it figured out, it surprises us – sometimes with too little rain, sometimes with too much.” The key is remembering the lessons of the past 120 years: respect the climate’s power, expect variability, and prepare for the extremes. After all, as history shows and experts affirm, rainfall in this corner of South Africa has always been a story of swing and suspense, written anew each season by the whims of nature.

Sources:

 Historical rainfall data were compiled from South African Weather Service archives, research by Lynch et al. (2001) (), and climate records (1903–2023) for Potchefstroom (Potchefstroom - Wikipedia) (Average temperature and precipitation by months and years: Potchefstroom ). Notable flood accounts were drawn from news reports and local studies (Heavy rains destroy several homes in North West - newsnote) (North West Battles Floods as Heavy Rains Wreak Havoc - POWER 98.7). Climate insights and quotes were provided by NWU’s African Centre for Disaster Studies (NWU expert weighs in on North West floods | news.nwu.ac.za) (NWU expert weighs in on North West floods | news.nwu.ac.za) and Water SA journal analyses (Heavy daily-rainfall characteristics over the Gauteng Province), among others, as cited throughout the article.

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